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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.